Utah, Why Do We Worship the AP Poll?

Shower Thought - September 3, 2025

In 2016, there was a pollster who predicted elections named Nate Silver. He looked exactly like you’d think a pollster would look. He had his own website that was really popular, showing who would win every state and county in the country. Smart guy, University of Chicago, great at math, poker player, baseball numbers nerd, knew all the equations. Leading up to the election, CNN and everybody else would have Silver on, and he'd sit there sweating and tell everyone who was going to win, while John King nodded very seriously. Then the election happened, Silver's prediction was wrong, and nobody has ever heard from him since. His whole reputation was based on picking correctly. Once he missed so badly, all of his prestige was gone, and he moved to Idaho.

The AP poll is college football's equivalent to Nate Silver. Last year, the AP poll missed 50% of its preseason top 25 picks. Half the teams they listed in August as the top 25 in the country were unranked by the end of the season. After Week One this year in college football, there’s already been a huge reshuffle. The number one team has fallen to 7th, Bama stinks and has dropped to 21st. Florida State, which was unranked, is suddenly the 14th best team in the country. Kansas State, ranked 17th, almost lost at home to North Dakota. The AP poll is wrong a lot, yet it still keeps its prestige. It’ll be wrong again this week, and by the end of the season, it’ll be lucky to have a grade that’s not an F. It should move to Idaho!