BYU Gets Decent Respect In 2025 ESPN FPI
Lo and behold, it’s that time of year again.
The football power index produced by ESPN is back up and in full swing, giving you their top 25, teams most likely to hit six wins, conference champion probabilities and so on among all 136 FBS teams.
If you happen to be a numbers person, it’s got enough content to keep any sports nerd entertained for at least a couple hours.
At the bare minimum the FPI gives fans an understanding of where big media views their favorite football team.
Does the algorithm label them as sneaky underdogs, a team to watch, or think they have missed their window to be competitive altogether?
For some fanbases it’s a laughable mess of randomized numbers that doesn’t have a clue, for others it’s more evidence that your team is as good as you think they are.
For fans of the BYU Cougars, this year’s FPI brings much more hope and optimism than last year’s edition.
Before BYU went on an unexpected tear last season, posting an 11-2 record, the football power index was very against the royal blue.
The 2024 offseason FPI slated the Cougars as a bottom two team in the Big 12 as they gave them a 0.5 % chance of winning the conference altogether at the time.
BYU would of course finish in the top 3 of the Big 12 with opportunities to win it outright before falling short.
With a projected win total of 4.8 wins and a 0.6 % chance of making the playoffs the FPI’s database proved to be rather faulty a year ago as the Cougars remained in the playoff hunt up until the bitter end.
Moving into the 2025 version a year later, let’s see how the FPI has adjusted their stance on the team in Provo after a fantastic season.
For starters, the projected win total for the Cougars has bumped significantly compared to last years guesstimate with 8 wins expected in 2025.
The FPI awards BYU an 89.2 % of hitting at least six wins and making a bowl game.
It may be less than what Cougars fans are hoping for but it’s a small sign of respect from a fickle system.
Speaking of small signs of respect, don’t expect to find the Cougars who finished 13th in the nation last year, in the FPI’s top 25.
There’s no way they could possibly fit BYU into there with 13 SEC teams being included.
But they did slot BYU into the 29th overall ranking, making them the 3rd highest Big 12 team behind K-State (21st) and Arizona State (24th).
Other teams on the brink of the Top 25 just in front of BYU are Virginia Tech, Washington and Georgia Tech.
The Cougars find themselves a step above a slew of Big 12 schools in the overall rankings like Kansas, TCU, Baylor and Texas Tech who are all within the top 35, as well as outpacing squads like Kentucky, Indiana and Tulane.
The Big 12 is the most competitively open conference on the power four front based on these metrics as the SEC, Big Ten and ACC all have a team with at least a 34 % chance or greater when it pertains to winning their respective conference.
So when you witness BYU with the 4th best odds of winning the conference, don’t freak out.
Their 10.4 % chance of hoisting the Big 12 title is roughly 10 percent behind K-State, 3 percent behind ASU and less than 1 percent off of Kansas.
K-State may have the algorithms vote, but the numbers point to a very tight contest.
As far as the playoffs are concerned, BYU received a 12.6% chance of going dancing come postseason time.
That percentage puts them on a similar likelihood of getting in as Florida, Virginia Tech, Baylor and Nebraska
Those odds may look weak considering that the Cougars also reportedly have the 74th toughest schedule in the nation, AKA, 2nd easiest in the Big 12 behind Houston.
If BYU can run the gauntlet and do what they almost did last year, the Cougars are given a 0.6 % chance of making the title game and a 0.1 % chance of winning it.
Not the best look, but when you consider it’s the 2nd best odds in the conference to make the national championship only behind Kansas State’s 1.3 %, you’ll take it.
Compared to last year, all these fancy numbers and stats and decimals seem rather impressive.
But let’s be honest, both the BYU Cougars and their fans have higher hopes and expectations than being just a top 30 team who has a good chance at a bowl game.
BYU will get their first opportunity to make the FPI bump them up a bit when they host FCS opponent, Portland State, on August 30th.
Believe the numbers, expect more, expect less, it doesn’t matter, none of it will until these teams hit the field and show us what percentages never could.